GRAHAM: Time For A Reversion To The Mathematical Mean
1/22/2019 9:00:00 AM | Men's Basketball
By: Andy Graham, IUHoosiers.com
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. - Just 39 seconds remained when Romeo Langford got a step on Northwestern's Vic Law to nail a 14-foot floater in the lane that gave Indiana the lead for good.
Remember that, Hoosier fans?
It does seem a while back. And it was, by basketball-season standards. That was over a month and a half ago.
That 68-66 IU win Dec. 1 opened Big Ten play and was part of a 3-0 start in conference for the Hoosiers, part of a 12-2 overall record carrying through the Jan. 3 homecourt win over Illinois.
But the Hoosiers are 12-6 now and hoping to halt a four-game skid with tonight's 9 p.m. tip at 11-7 Northwestern.
Everybody associated with the Hoosiers knew what sort of challenge January portended: the start of a daunting stretch of six road assignments in eight Big Ten games, culminating with a Feb. 2 date at Michigan State.
And the Hoosiers have looked a bit daunted at times, lately. They faltered during a pair of 15-point losses last week, 66-51 at home Monday against Nebraska and 70-55 Saturday at Purdue.
IU competed better at Purdue than against Nebraska, but scoring leader Langford managed just four points in his first trip to West Lafayette – the first time all season the star freshman hadn't attained double-figures.
Langford picked up two fouls just 2:54 in, sat most of the first half, and never did find his customary stride.
"Yeah, every player has their games once in a while when it's not their day," IU coach Archie Miller said post-game. "I thought early in the game they were really loaded up (to stop Langford). He picked up a tough foul in transition defense, on a grab … he got a quick one there, and the second one was a charge, when he tried to drive the ball and they were in (the lane) today.
"They loaded the box up pretty good on us and, I think, that took him out of a little bit of his rhythm right away … he was very aggressive in the second half, but it's tough. Everything was at the basket and they've got great size and they made things hard on him, for the most part.
"He wasn't at his best today, but he'll be fine. He's a bounce-back guy."
Bouncing back is what the Hoosiers need to do, collectively, after yet another quick turn-around to yet another road junket – against a Northwestern team that doubtless recalls how one got away late on Dec. 1.
Northwestern got a combined 40 points from seniors Law and Dererk Pardon that day, with Pardon especially productive. The 6-foot-8 frontliner was superb – especially when his teammates were struggling to score after halftime. Pardon finished with 24 points (with 11 of 15 shooting from the field) and 10 boards.
Law, a 6-7 standout in his fifth year with the program after taking a medical redshirt for the 2015-16 campaign, was coach Chris Collins' first marquee recruit to Evanston. Law is leading the Wildcat scoring at 16.6 points per game, also leads with 21 steals and is second in assists with 45.
Pardon averages 14.4 points and 7.7 rebounds.
Ryan Taylor, a 6-6 grad transfer from Evansville who prepped at Michigan City, also averages double-figure scoring at 12.6. Taylor, who led the Missouri Valley Conference in scoring last season at 21.3, is a noted marksman. He is shooting .968 from the free throw line.
A.J. Turner, at 6-7, has done a lot of ball-handling duties for a team without a pure point guard. He has a team-high 62 assists and averages 8.7 points. Filling out the usual starting lineup is 6-7 freshman Miller Kopp (5.3), who shoots a robust .452 from 3-point range.
Anthony Gaines, a 6-4 sophomore, joined Law in guarding Langford back in December and averages 5.6 points. He's a .429 3-point shooter.
Barrett Benson, a 6-10 junior, and 6-10 frosh Pete Nance supply some significant size off the bench.
Count on the Wildcats, in either man-to-man or zone, to clog the lane. Purdue and other recent IU foes have done that to good effect as the Hoosiers have had trouble making them pay from the perimeter.
Indiana hit just 4 of 20 3-point shots at Purdue. Langford is a terrific scorer off the drive but has seen fewer openings in the lane lately, and the sagging defenses have also made it more difficult for IU to consistently feed Morgan down low.
Langford's second foul Saturday was a charge in the lane drawn by the Boilers' Greg Eifert and sent Langford to the sidelines, a bit chastened in terms of further driving the lane.
"I think the foul trouble got into his head a little bit," Morgan said of Langford after the game. "He was trying to play conservative. That second foul was a charge and I know, when that happens to me, I get a little conservative and make sure nobody is there before I move.
"I'm pretty sure he was doing the same thing. I was trying to talk to him the whole game, saying, 'You've got to stay with who you are. You're a great driver. You know how to pass out of the drive, out of double teams' – just things like that."
What has seemingly gotten into Morgan's head much of the season, despite good performance in almost every other aspect, is free throw shooting.
Morgan was an 80-percent free throw shooter as an IU freshman (24 of 30). But that percentage has declined each subsequent season (.739, .631 and the current .559).
A .622 shooter from the field, including .400 from 3-point range, Morgan has tried various stances and approaches at the foul line. His latest gambit, with feet facing at a right angle away from the rim, resulted in just 1 of 5 free-throw shooting Saturday.
"It's just a mental thing," Morgan said. "You have to step up and knock them down. A lot of them were just long or short … it's a mental thing."
Morgan is hardly alone in his struggles at the stripe. IU shot just .389 from the foul line Saturday and is at just .649, as a team, this season.
But the Hoosiers have shown they can shoot better, just generally, than they have of late. Their .505 percentage from the field still leads the Big Ten and ranks sixth in the nation. And their .352 team mark from 3-point range is respectable.
Langford averages 17.9 points and 5.4 boards. Morgan is at 16.4 and 7.7. Sophomore frontliner Justin Smith had 15 points in a good performance at Purdue and averages 8.7.
Even amidst the losing streak, the Hoosiers have had their moments. They fell behind 11-2 at Purdue but rallied to lead three separate times before halftime. IU ran out to a 9-0 start and eventually a 28-14 lead at Maryland before the Terps caught fire to post a 78-75 victory Jan. 11.
Langford matched his career high with 28 points at Maryland So it hasn't been all that long since he was hot. He finished with a frustrating 2-for-12 day from the field Saturday, and missed all four of his free throws, but is still shooting a solid .489 from the field and .714 at the line.
"He's a terrific scorer, a terrific player," Northwestern's Collins said of Langford after clinching shot in the Dec. 1 game. "He made a leaning 14-foot shot under pressure. That's what really good players do."
Indiana has some really good players. And there is inevitably some reversion to the mean, mathematically.
That means the Hoosiers should eventually hit a stride again.
Hitting those big shots at crunch-time again.
They're hoping that starts tonight.
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. - Just 39 seconds remained when Romeo Langford got a step on Northwestern's Vic Law to nail a 14-foot floater in the lane that gave Indiana the lead for good.
Remember that, Hoosier fans?
It does seem a while back. And it was, by basketball-season standards. That was over a month and a half ago.
That 68-66 IU win Dec. 1 opened Big Ten play and was part of a 3-0 start in conference for the Hoosiers, part of a 12-2 overall record carrying through the Jan. 3 homecourt win over Illinois.
But the Hoosiers are 12-6 now and hoping to halt a four-game skid with tonight's 9 p.m. tip at 11-7 Northwestern.
Everybody associated with the Hoosiers knew what sort of challenge January portended: the start of a daunting stretch of six road assignments in eight Big Ten games, culminating with a Feb. 2 date at Michigan State.
And the Hoosiers have looked a bit daunted at times, lately. They faltered during a pair of 15-point losses last week, 66-51 at home Monday against Nebraska and 70-55 Saturday at Purdue.
IU competed better at Purdue than against Nebraska, but scoring leader Langford managed just four points in his first trip to West Lafayette – the first time all season the star freshman hadn't attained double-figures.
Langford picked up two fouls just 2:54 in, sat most of the first half, and never did find his customary stride.
"Yeah, every player has their games once in a while when it's not their day," IU coach Archie Miller said post-game. "I thought early in the game they were really loaded up (to stop Langford). He picked up a tough foul in transition defense, on a grab … he got a quick one there, and the second one was a charge, when he tried to drive the ball and they were in (the lane) today.
"They loaded the box up pretty good on us and, I think, that took him out of a little bit of his rhythm right away … he was very aggressive in the second half, but it's tough. Everything was at the basket and they've got great size and they made things hard on him, for the most part.
"He wasn't at his best today, but he'll be fine. He's a bounce-back guy."
Bouncing back is what the Hoosiers need to do, collectively, after yet another quick turn-around to yet another road junket – against a Northwestern team that doubtless recalls how one got away late on Dec. 1.
Northwestern got a combined 40 points from seniors Law and Dererk Pardon that day, with Pardon especially productive. The 6-foot-8 frontliner was superb – especially when his teammates were struggling to score after halftime. Pardon finished with 24 points (with 11 of 15 shooting from the field) and 10 boards.
Law, a 6-7 standout in his fifth year with the program after taking a medical redshirt for the 2015-16 campaign, was coach Chris Collins' first marquee recruit to Evanston. Law is leading the Wildcat scoring at 16.6 points per game, also leads with 21 steals and is second in assists with 45.
Pardon averages 14.4 points and 7.7 rebounds.
Ryan Taylor, a 6-6 grad transfer from Evansville who prepped at Michigan City, also averages double-figure scoring at 12.6. Taylor, who led the Missouri Valley Conference in scoring last season at 21.3, is a noted marksman. He is shooting .968 from the free throw line.
A.J. Turner, at 6-7, has done a lot of ball-handling duties for a team without a pure point guard. He has a team-high 62 assists and averages 8.7 points. Filling out the usual starting lineup is 6-7 freshman Miller Kopp (5.3), who shoots a robust .452 from 3-point range.
Anthony Gaines, a 6-4 sophomore, joined Law in guarding Langford back in December and averages 5.6 points. He's a .429 3-point shooter.
Barrett Benson, a 6-10 junior, and 6-10 frosh Pete Nance supply some significant size off the bench.
Count on the Wildcats, in either man-to-man or zone, to clog the lane. Purdue and other recent IU foes have done that to good effect as the Hoosiers have had trouble making them pay from the perimeter.
Indiana hit just 4 of 20 3-point shots at Purdue. Langford is a terrific scorer off the drive but has seen fewer openings in the lane lately, and the sagging defenses have also made it more difficult for IU to consistently feed Morgan down low.
Langford's second foul Saturday was a charge in the lane drawn by the Boilers' Greg Eifert and sent Langford to the sidelines, a bit chastened in terms of further driving the lane.
"I think the foul trouble got into his head a little bit," Morgan said of Langford after the game. "He was trying to play conservative. That second foul was a charge and I know, when that happens to me, I get a little conservative and make sure nobody is there before I move.
"I'm pretty sure he was doing the same thing. I was trying to talk to him the whole game, saying, 'You've got to stay with who you are. You're a great driver. You know how to pass out of the drive, out of double teams' – just things like that."
What has seemingly gotten into Morgan's head much of the season, despite good performance in almost every other aspect, is free throw shooting.
Morgan was an 80-percent free throw shooter as an IU freshman (24 of 30). But that percentage has declined each subsequent season (.739, .631 and the current .559).
A .622 shooter from the field, including .400 from 3-point range, Morgan has tried various stances and approaches at the foul line. His latest gambit, with feet facing at a right angle away from the rim, resulted in just 1 of 5 free-throw shooting Saturday.
"It's just a mental thing," Morgan said. "You have to step up and knock them down. A lot of them were just long or short … it's a mental thing."
Morgan is hardly alone in his struggles at the stripe. IU shot just .389 from the foul line Saturday and is at just .649, as a team, this season.
But the Hoosiers have shown they can shoot better, just generally, than they have of late. Their .505 percentage from the field still leads the Big Ten and ranks sixth in the nation. And their .352 team mark from 3-point range is respectable.
Langford averages 17.9 points and 5.4 boards. Morgan is at 16.4 and 7.7. Sophomore frontliner Justin Smith had 15 points in a good performance at Purdue and averages 8.7.
Even amidst the losing streak, the Hoosiers have had their moments. They fell behind 11-2 at Purdue but rallied to lead three separate times before halftime. IU ran out to a 9-0 start and eventually a 28-14 lead at Maryland before the Terps caught fire to post a 78-75 victory Jan. 11.
Langford matched his career high with 28 points at Maryland So it hasn't been all that long since he was hot. He finished with a frustrating 2-for-12 day from the field Saturday, and missed all four of his free throws, but is still shooting a solid .489 from the field and .714 at the line.
"He's a terrific scorer, a terrific player," Northwestern's Collins said of Langford after clinching shot in the Dec. 1 game. "He made a leaning 14-foot shot under pressure. That's what really good players do."
Indiana has some really good players. And there is inevitably some reversion to the mean, mathematically.
That means the Hoosiers should eventually hit a stride again.
Hitting those big shots at crunch-time again.
They're hoping that starts tonight.
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